FOMC 9월 파월 연준의장 연설 전문 해석

FOMC 9월 파월 연준의장 연설 영상 전문 해석

2022년 9월 21일(현지시간) FOMC 파월 연준 의장 연설문에 대한 전문 해석입니다.

8분간 연설을 하였으며, 연설 중에 나타나는 도표와 그래프도 해석 내용에 포함하였습니다.

 

FOMC 파월 의장의 기자회견 개회 성명서 연설 영상

Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement September 21, 2022 에 대한 발표 영상입니다.

 

https://youtu.be/Sxy2QTq864o

2022년9월-FOMC-파월의장-연설

FOMC 파월 의장 연설문 내용

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal.

안녕하세요. 제 동료들과 저는 인플레이션을 목표치인 2%까지 낮추기 위해 최선을 다하고 있습니다.

 

We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.

우리는 미국 가정과 기업을 대신하여 물가 안정을 회복하기 위해 필요한 도구와 결의를 모두 가지고 있습니다.

 

Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.

물가 안정은 연방준비제도 이사회의 책임이자 우리 경제의 근간이 됩니다.

 

Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

물가 안정이 없으면 경제는 아무에게도 효과가 없습니다. 특히 물가 안정 없이는 모두에게 이익이 되는 강력한 노동 시장 조건을 지속적으로 달성할 수 없습니다.

 

Today, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 3/4 percentage point, and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate.

오늘 FOMC는 정책 금리를 3/4% 포인트 인상했으며 지속적인 인상이 적절할 것으로 예상합니다.

(3/4 percentage point는 75bp 인상을 말함)

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent.

인플레이션을 2%로 되돌릴 수 있을 만큼 충분히 제한적인 수준으로 정책 기조를 의도적으로 움직이고 있습니다.

(인플레이션 2%는 PCE 개인소비지출을 말함)

 

In addition, we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

또한 대차대조표 규모를 대폭 줄이는 과정을 계속하고 있습니다.

I will have more to say about today’s monetary policy actions after briefly reviewing economic developments.

오늘의 통화정책 조치에 대해서는 경제 상황을 간략히 살펴본 후 더 말씀드리겠습니다.

 

The U.S. economy has slowed from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession.

미국 경제는 2021년의 역사적으로 높은 성장률에서 둔화되었으며, 이는 대유행 침체 이후 경제 재개를 반영했습니다.

 

Recent indicators point to modest growth of spending and production.

최근 지표는 지출과 생산의 완만한 성장을 보여줍니다.

 

Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year’s rapid pace, in part reflecting lower real disposable income and tighter financial conditions.

소비자 지출의 성장은 작년의 빠른 속도로 둔화되었으며, 부분적으로는 실질 가처분 소득 감소와 재정 상황 악화를 반영합니다.

 

Activity in the housing sector has weakened significantly, in large part reflecting higher mortgage rates.

주택 부문의 활동은 대부분 높은 모기지 이자율을 반영하여 크게 약화되었습니다.

Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment, while weaker economic growth abroad is restraining exports.

높은 이자율과 느린 생산량 증가도 기업의 고정 투자에 부담을 주는 것으로 보이며, 해외 경제 성장 둔화는 수출을 억제하고 있습니다.

 

As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, since June FOMC participants have marked down their projections for economic activity, with the median projection for real September 21, 2022 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY Page 2 of 4 GDP growth standing at just 0.2 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, well below the median estimate of the longer-run normal growth rate.

경제 전망 요약에서 볼 수 있듯이 FOMC 참가자들은 6월부터 경제 활동에 대한 전망을 하향 조정했으며, 2022년 9월 21일 실제 GDP 성장률의 중앙값 전망은 올해 0.2%에 불과합니다. 그리고 내년에는 1.2%로, 장기 정상 성장률의 중간 추정치보다 훨씬 낮습니다.

Change_in_Real_GDP

 

Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market has remained extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies near historical highs, and wage growth elevated. Job gains have been robust, with employment rising by an average of 378,000 jobs per month over the last three months.

성장 둔화에도 불구하고 노동 시장은 50년 만에 최저 수준에 가까운 실업률, 역사적 최고치에 가까운 일자리, 높은 임금 상승 등 극도로 타이트한 상태를 유지하고 있습니다. 지난 3개월 동안 월평균 378,000개의 일자리가 증가하면서 일자리 증가가 견조했습니다.

 

The labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers.

노동 시장은 계속해서 균형을 잃고 있으며, 노동자에 대한 수요는 가용 노동자의 공급을 훨씬 초과합니다. 

 

The labor force participation rate showed a welcome uptick in August but is little changed since the beginning of the year. FOMC participants expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance over time, easing the upward pressure on wages and prices.

경제활동 참가율은 8월 들어 반가운 상승세를 보였지만 연초와 큰 변화가 없었다. FOMC 참가자들은 노동 시장의 수급 조건이 시간이 지남에 따라 더 나은 균형을 이루고 임금과 물가에 대한 상승 압력이 완화될 것으로 기대합니다.

실업률_전망

The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate rises to 4.4 percent at the end of next year, onehalf percentage point higher than in the June projections.

SEP의 실업률 전망 중앙값은 내년 말 4.4%로 6월 전망보다 0.5% 포인트 높다.

(SEP는 Summary of Economic Projections로 FOMC 회의 전 발표하는 연준의 경기전망)

 

Over the next three years, the median unemployment rate runs above the median estimate of its longer-run normal level. Inflation remains well above our 2 percent longer-run goal.

향후 3년 동안 실업률 중앙값은 장기 정상 수준의 중앙값 추정치를 초과하게 됩니다. 인플레이션은 장기 목표인 2%를 훨씬 상회합니다.

 

Over the 12 months ending in July, total PCE prices rose 6.3 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.6 percent. In August, the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index was 8.3 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 6.3 percent. Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of goods and services.

7월로 끝나는 12개월 동안 총 PCE 가격은 6.3% 상승했습니다. 변동성이 큰 식품 및 에너지 카테고리를 제외하고 핵심 PCE 가격은 4.6% 상승했습니다. 8월 소비자물가지수의 12개월 변화는 8.3%, 근원 CPI 변화는 6.3%였다. 가격 압박은 광범위한 상품과 서비스 전반에 걸쳐 분명히 존재합니다.

 

Although gasoline prices have turned down in recent months, they remain well above year-earlier levels, in part reflecting Russia’s war against Ukraine, which has boosted prices for energy and food and has created additional upward pressure on inflation.

최근 몇 달 동안 휘발유 가격이 하락했지만 전년도 수준보다 훨씬 높은 수준을 유지하고 있으며, 이는 부분적으로 에너지 및 식품 가격을 인상하고 인플레이션에 추가적인 상승 압력을 가한 러시아의 우크라이나와의 전쟁을 반영합니다.

PCE_인플레이션_전망

The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 5.4 percent this year and falls to 2.8 percent next year, 2.3 percent in 2024, and 2 percent in 2025; participants continue to see risks to inflation as weighted to the upside.

총 PCE 인플레이션에 대한 SEP의 중앙값 예측은 올해 5.4%이고 내년에는 2.8%, 2024년에는 2.3%, 2025년에는 2%로 하락합니다. 참가자들은 인플레이션에 대한 위험을 상승에 가중치를 둔 것으로 계속 보고 있습니다.

 

 

September 21, 2022 Chair Powell’s Press Conference PRELIMINARY Page 3 of 4 Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. But that is not grounds for complacency; the longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

2022년 9월 21일 파월 의장의 기자 회견 예비 3/4 페이지 높은 인플레이션에도 불구하고 가계, 기업, 예측가에 대한 광범위한 설문 조사와 금융 부문의 측정에 반영된 바와 같이 장기 인플레이션 기대치는 잘 고정된 것으로 보입니다. 시장. 그러나 그것은 안주할 근거가 아닙니다. 현재의 고인플레이션이 계속될수록 더 높은 인플레이션에 대한 기대가 확고해질 가능성이 커집니다.

 

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.

연준의 통화 정책 조치는 미국인을 위한 최대 고용과 안정적인 물가를 촉진하라는 우리의 명령에 따릅니다. 저와 제 동료들은 높은 인플레이션이 구매력을 약화시키기 때문에 심각한 어려움을 초래한다는 사실을 잘 알고 있습니다. 특히 식품, 주택, 교통과 같은 필수품의 높은 비용을 감당할 능력이 가장 부족한 사람들에게는 더욱 그렇습니다.

 

We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective. At today’s meeting the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 3/4 percentage point, bringing the target range to 3 to 3-1/4 percent. And we are continuing the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet, which plays an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy.

우리는 높은 인플레이션이 우리의 임무 양쪽에 가하는 위험에 매우 주의를 기울이고 있으며 인플레이션을 2% 목표로 되돌릴 것을 강력히 약속합니다. 오늘 회의에서 위원회는 연방기금 금리의 목표 범위를 3/4% 포인트 인상하여 목표 범위를 3.0~3.25%로 높였습니다. 그리고 통화정책 기조를 확고히 하는 데 중요한 역할을 하는 대차대조표 규모를 대폭 축소하는 과정을 계속하고 있습니다.

 

Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2 percent. We anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate; the pace of those increases will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy.

앞으로 몇 달 동안 우리는 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아오는 것과 일치하여 인플레이션이 하락하고 있다는 강력한 증거를 찾을 것입니다. 연방기금 금리의 목표 범위를 지속적으로 인상하는 것이 적절할 것으로 예상합니다. 이러한 증가 속도는 계속해서 들어오는 데이터와 경제에 대한 진화하는 전망에 따라 달라질 것입니다.

 

With today’s action, we have raised interest rates by 3 percentage points this year. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases, while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation.

오늘의 조치로 우리는 올해 금리를 3% 포인트 인상했습니다. 어느 시점에서 통화 정책의 기조가 더 긴축됨에 따라 우리의 누적 정책 조정이 경제와 인플레이션에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 평가하면서 인상 속도를 늦추는 것이 적절하게 될 것입니다.

 

We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.

계속해서 회의를 통해 결정을 내리고 최대한 명확하게 생각을 전달하겠습니다. 물가 안정을 회복하려면 당분간 제한적 정책 기조를 유지해야 할 것입니다. 역사적 기록은 조기 완화 정책에 대해 강력하게 경고합니다.

 

As shown in the SEP, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 4.4 percent at the end of this year, 1 percentage point higher than projected in June.

9월 기준 연방기금금리 적정 수준 전망 중앙값은 올해 말 4.4%로 지난 6월 전망치보다 1% 포인트 높다.

점도표_연방기금금리-적정수준

The median projection rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year and declines to 2.9 percent by the end of 2025, still above the median estimate of its longer-run value.

전망 중앙값은 내년 말에 4.6%로 상승하고 2025년 말까지 2.9%로 감소하며 여전히 장기 가치의 중앙값 추정치를 상회합니다.

 

Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now.

물론 이러한 예측은 위원회의 결정이나 계획을 나타내는 것이 아니며 지금부터 1년 이상 경제가 어떻게 될 것인지 아무도 확실하게 알지 못합니다.

 

We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

우리는 수요가 공급과 더 잘 일치하도록 강력하고 신속한 조치를 취하고 있습니다. 우리의 가장 중요한 초점은 인플레이션을 2% 목표로 되돌리고 장기 인플레이션 기대치를 잘 고정시키기 위해 도구를 사용하는 것입니다.

 

Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth, and there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions.

인플레이션을 낮추려면 추세 이하의 성장이 지속되어야 하며 노동 시장 상황이 어느 정도 완화될 가능성이 매우 높습니다.

 

Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

장기적으로 고용 극대화와 물가 안정을 위한 발판을 마련하기 위해서는 물가 안정 회복이 필수적이다.

 

We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.

우리는 작업이 완료될 때까지 이를 유지할 것입니다. 결론적으로, 우리는 우리의 행동이 전국의 지역 사회, 가족 및 기업에 영향을 미친다는 것을 이해합니다. 

 

Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.

우리가 하는 모든 일은 우리의 공공 사명에 봉사하는 것입니다. 연준은 최대 고용 및 물가 안정 목표를 달성하기 위해 최선을 다할 것입니다.

파월의장-질의응답

Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.라고 말하며 질의응답 시간이 진행되는 데, 질의응답 관련하여서는 다음에 포스팅하도록 하겠습니다.